A Changing World Order: Trump’s Trade War With May End in Disaster, China Too Strong to Curb Now
It's Agitation & Propaganda. We aren't interested in naked facts, but in causes and consequences. There's only one truth. Hello.
Agitation & Propaganda
Sun Tzu — 'Every battle is won before it's ever fought.'
The phrase usually attributed to Sun Tzu can well describe the epic battle between the USA and China, which the whole world observes in undisguised amazement. Donald Trump's bullish tweets have grown into a real war over the past months. There haven't been casualties yet, but given the rivals' dimensions, the worst is ahead.
"—Have there been accidents at the site?
—No, there hasn't been any so far.
—There will be."
«Stocks slump as the Trump administration announces possible imposing of tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion. And China said it wouldn't sit back. Every consumer may feel this decision. It will affect prices for seafood, shampoos, electronics, fridges and even baseball gloves.”
Beijing will definitely take up the baseball glove thrown at its face. The Communist Party isn't used to keeping silent and drying tears. American farmers may be denied the access to the Chinese market of feeding-stuffs, which would mean unemployment for several states. Both sides have a rich and varied toolbox of painful holds. Clearly, they'll have it out of the WTO, as nobody cares about the WTO; but with the help of a hammer and someone's mother.
Gao Feng, China's Commerce Ministry spokesperson: „US measures are essentially attacking global supply and value chains. To put it simply, the US is opening fire on the entire world, including itself.“
Donald Trump: „First “34, and then you have another 16 in two weeks and then as you know we have 200 billion in abeyance and then after the 200 billion we have 300 billion in abeyance. OK? So we have 50 plus 200 plus almost 300.“
That is, he hints at a complete ban on imports from China, which means severing the ties, given how much the economies are intertwined. It's quite easy to predict how this will affect political and military relations. But the thing is China, in line with either Sun Tzu's legacy or its own state plan, has been preparing for such scenario for a very long time.
Final consumption expenditure contributed 55% to China’s economic growth annually, said Ning Jizhe, head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The figure indicates that the country’s economic growth is driven by domestic demands.
“Retail sales in China are on track to hit just over $5.8 trillion this year, to surpass retail sales in the United States for the first time. It's another definitive marker in China's rise to economic superpower status. The growth is luring everyone from automakers to make up companies.”
The willingness of overseas investors to hold yuan-denominated assets is rising fast and the authorities plan to further increase the Chinese currency’s flexibility, China’s foreign exchange regulator Pan Gongsheng said.
Talks will be fruitless. The problem can't be solved by peaceful means because the US main claim has nothing to do with the trade deficit, but Beijing's technological and political ambitions. Made in China 2025 program implies China's transformation into the world leader in high-tech and defense within 7 years. Meaning that the previous leader will have to scoot over, giving in part of its markets, influence, and assets. Such perturbations were never peaceful in history.
“The US Defense Department said on Monday that sending two US warships through the Taiwan Strait this weekend was “legally permissible” after China accused the US of playing the “Taiwan card” as the two countries’ trade dispute heated up.”
NATO summit, that ended with revilement and mutual accusations, should be perceived in the same context. It's not an elephant in a china shop, Russian agent Trump who's ruining the Atlantic Unity. A big anti-China coalition is being forged, and there are still vacancies there. For example, Germany has a considerable turnover with China. That's why Merkel is reluctant, and Trump greets her with the words: „You owe me a trillion dollars!' Thus, the EU and German concerns will get from Washington personal tariffs on cars, for example, instead of a carrot. For the same reason president Macron will get a great deal: repeat Brexit a la francaise.
“Donald Trump suggested to Emmanuel Macron that he pull France out of the EU in return for a bilateral trade deal. The fanciful offer was reported to have been made during a private meeting when Macron visited Washington in April. When directly asked about the subject matter of such talks, Macron said that he wasn't used to airing dirty laundry in public.”
There are already piles of this dirty laundry. So, fuss in Brussels is fine. Karabas-Barabas is trying to rein in his puppets that have run wild. And the puppets aren't quite sure of Karabas' almightiness.
“I think that two world wars and the Cold War taught us that we are stronger together than apart. Because we understand that when we stand together, also in dealing with Russia, we are stronger.”
No, you’re just making Russia richer. You’re not dealing with Russia.
“It hurts, right?”
Karabas-Barabas actually has a stick and a carrot for Russia too, depending on its stance in the Eschatological battle between the American eagle and the Chinese dragon. If it's constructive, peppered with liberal reforms orchestrated by the IMF, it's one thing. If it isn't constructive, I bet Trump will no more be friendly, just like after the Tomahawk missile strike at Syria.
In this context, an extract from an appeal by German Friedrich Von Weizsäcker Foundation is very illustrative.
“The dangers of the current situation arise primarily from the fact that Russia and the United States no longer see themselves as the stabilizing and leading powers of opposing systems or ideologies, safeguarding only their national interests. The same increasingly applies to China and also to India as well as to certain regional powers such as Turkey and Iran. None of the structural reasons which led to World War I have actually been vanquished.”
The best, almost medical, illustration of the modern world which hasn't vanquished the old differences is this protocol footage from the sidelines of the NATO summit. Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president and a Luxembourger, will retire in a year. He's 64. But, apparently, Juncker can't easily bear the burden of international politics any longer. Old age is a pretty sad stage, whoever tries to convince you otherwise.
“—Hey you, spongers! Are you going to call it a day? No way, dear! You have to work on.
—But our sunset years… What if anything bad happens? We'll get our time back. We'll get younger and cause harm to people with renewed vigor!